by Rob Fleming, Architect
Deep down… you know it’s true…
The relentless onslaught of extreme climate disasters is just a preview to a reckoning few are willing to acknowledge. In a world where politicians largely ignore the threat at our doorstep and climate scientists resist telling us the whole truth, most people don’t realize we are well past the point of stopping climate change. We now find ourselves hurtling headlong into the IPCC’s worst-case scenario of 5 Degree Celsius of global heating, leading us to a staggering, but important conclusion:
We will lose the battle against climate change
Fear not, sustainability leaders have fought valiantly to slow the rate of global heating, buying valuable time to prepare for the full impact of the climate catastrophe. Resilience experts have shown the way on how to bounce back from disasters and reclaim our communities. And yet, after experiencing the fallout from hurricanes Helene and Milton and the Palisades fire in Los Angeles, a stark realization is beginning to emerge:
We can’t save the planet
Enter Survivability, a new, more radical and more urgent approach to enduring the climate emergency. Inspired by the US military’s scenario planning exercise on how to survive a losing battle, Survivability is an innovative, yet practical approach to dealing with the fall-out of the climate catastrophe and optimistic premise:
We can save ourselves
But first, let’s come to terms with the challenge at hand. Author Jeff Goodell, who wrote, The Heat Will Kill You first, said it best,“Globally, about 145 million people live three feet or less above the current sea level. As the waters rise, millions of these people will be displaced, many of them in poor countries, creating generations of climate refugees that will make today’s Syrian war refugee crisis look like a high school drama production.”[1]
The IPCC’s Scenario 5: Avoid at All Costs (4.4°C by 2100) – SSP5-8.5 features nearly eight -degree Fahrenheit of global heating, 800 PPM of CO2 by 2099, and billions of tons of methane emissions. According to the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, in that scenario, the oceans will rise by 62 to 72 feet[2]. The entire western and southwestern areas of the US will completely dry out[3], The northeastern section of the country will become very cold (but Livable) due to the breakdown of the Gulf Stream[4]. These staggering predictions form a daunting, depressing and frankly horrifying vision of the future. And yet we humans are experts in Survivability. We survived the so-called extinction event on Easter Island[5]. We persisted through the Black Plaque, and we managed Covid. The question then, is not whether we will survive as a species, but rather, how? This is the central question that Survivability experts are considering.
To help further visualize our predicament, I offer The Survivability Scale™. Based on the five IPPC Climate Scenarios[6] and inspired by the Richter Scale, The Survivability Scale conveys the speed and scope of the worsening climate crisis in a simple, relatable manner. The commentary on the left side of the Scale offers a positive conclusion, but only if we heed the warnings of climate scientists and develop Survivability solutions sooner than later. No matter what happens in the next decades, one thing is for sure:
You will either be moving, or someone is going to move near you
The Survivability Map (below) illustrates just how different our country will look in 2099. The orange areas will be largely unlivable by 2099. The green areas will remain habitable by 2099. In simple terms, many parts of the country will become much more crowded, while many other parts of the country will be sparsely populated by only the heartiest of souls.
The knee jerk response by journalists, when writing stories on the climate catastrophe, is to soften their statements to assure the public that there is still “hope”. For example, the passage below on of the left is the typical kind of mushy, feel good writing about the climate catastrophe. The one on the right uses more direct Survivability language.
The statement on the left leaves room for hope. The statement on the right forces us to confront our own mortality. Our cortisol levels elevate as we revert to our primal selves. The age-old dilemma races through our minds: Should we fight, freeze or flee? “Fighters” imagine building walls around their property, boarding up their windows and sitting on the porch with a shotgun. “Freezers” will do anything to change the subject and get back to business as usual. But the “Fleers” are the interesting ones. From a Survivability perspective, fleeing doesn’t mean packing a few suitcases, jumping in the car and driving north. On the contrary, the premise of Survivability suggests a more organized ‘grand plan’ to reimagine where and how we will live as global heating reaches 4 or even 5 degrees C.
As Gaia Vince points out in her book, Nomad Century, “Migration is not the problem; it is the solution – it always has been. As we will see, migration is the oldest survival trick.”[7] For example, After Katrina, thousands of people were resettled in other cities[8]. Currently, the US Government is planning to resettle 42,000 climate refugees from the Marshall Islands to Oklahoma[9]. Incentives already exist to coax people living in flood zones to move to higher ground[10] Climate gentrification is forcing low-income people, in places like Little Haiti, Miami to move as wealthy people buy up land on high ground[11]. The free market is already in “Survivability Mode” as insurance companies are raising rates or even cancelling policies, leaving people to live in unprotected and unsellable homes[12]. The coming changes are inevitable, and Survivability is the next big revolution in the long story of humanity’s quest to survive and thrive. It comes with a surprisingly positive outcome:
Our species will thrive once again
Here is a cavalcade of radical transformations that will occur to deliver the kinds of goods and services we will need to survive and thrive: Governments will mobilize to draw up ambitious climate migration and resettlement plans. The military will lead rescue operations after disasters and facilitate climate migration. Private industry will use its entrepreneurial know how to quickly build thousands of off-grid tiny-home communities. Universities will pivot from pure research to applied research and quickly plug-in to the Survivability movement. Trade organizations will train thousands of architects, designers, engineers and leaders of all kinds to plan for an organized resettlement. All of these initiatives will happen either as a reactive approach to climate destruction and mass migration, or as a more planned, proactive Survivability approach.
For those of you who think in more pragmatic ways, here is a preview of some of the Design for Survivability strategies coming our way: At the national scale, we will see the speedy construction of desalination plants on the west coast. The Mississippi River[13], fed by freshwater from the Great Lakes, will provide a lifeline for millions of climate refugees as they resettle in Lifeboat Communities. The suburbs will be densified as office parks, golf courses and open spaces are replaced with new vertical cities[14]. Abandoned office towers, in our urban centers, will become vertical farms, providing hydroponic vegetables and clean meats[15]. In our neighborhoods, people will band together to share energy, food and water resources. While these far-reaching ideas are intriguing, a more straight forward question is likely emerging: What’s next for me, today? What should I do? Well, one thing is for sure:
We can’t shop our way out of the climate crisis
The age of “responsible consumerism” is over. Bringing a reusable bag to the market, or even buying an electric car is not nearly enough. It is time for you to lead. Thanks to the advent of sustainability and resilience, there are a myriad of ways to become a climate action hero. In your companies you will lead the green team and find ways to reduce carbon emissions. In your local governments you will get involved in policy making. In your children’s schools, you will advocate for climate literacy. In your communities, you will lead the way in building trust-based relationships with your neighbors. And, in your own home you will be practicing permaculture and adding space for displaced relatives seeking to relocate after climate disasters.
To conclude, the human race is a wildly creative, adaptable and industrious species. Look at the Bushmen of the Kalahari, or the Inuit tribe living in the Arctic Circle, or the Dutch, who have managed to thrive while living below sea level for centuries. If we humans can get to the moon and beyond, surely, we can save our world. Deep down, you knew this time was coming. You are far more prepared than you might think.
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Rob Fleming is an author, architect and educator and the self-proclaimed founder of the Survivability Movement. This essay is an excerpt from his soon to be published new book: The Survivability Playbook, A Designer’s guide to saving our world. He is a Fellow in the Center for Environmental Building + Design in the Weitzman School of Design at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the Director of Sustainability at FCA, a Philadelphia based architecture and design firm. Learn more at RobFemingArchitect.com.
[1] The Water Will Come: Rising Seas, Sinking Cities, and the Remaking of the Civilized World
[2] Climate change 2021 the physical science basis summary for policymakers
[3] The New Dust Bowl is Upon Us
[4] Scientists-warn-collapse-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation
[5] Famed Polynesian Island did not succumb ecological suicide new evidence
[6] Five future scenarios ar6 IPCC
[7] Gaia Vince, Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World
[9] Marshall Islands national adaptation plan sea level rise cop28
[10] States towns incentive programs entice movers
[11] Weathering the storm climate gentrification in Miami
[12] California fire cost insurance premium hike
[13] Illinois and Michigan Canal.